Outlook

The 2020-2022 Strategic Plan, presented in November 2019, is founded on a sustainable and fully integrated business model that the Group has adopted since 2015. It is designed to enable Enel to seize the opportunities presented by the energy transition and linked to the global trends that are sweeping through the energy industry: decarbonization and electrification. The digitalization of grids and the adoption of platforms for all customer-related activities will be enablers of the Group’s strategy, which aims to accelerate the growth of renewables to offset a reduction in thermal generation. More specifically, the 2020-2022 Investment Plan envisages that:

  • investments in decarbonization will amount to about €14.4 billion (50% of total capex) and will be aimed at developing new renewable capacity and gradually replacing conventional generation assets. Decarbonization’s contribution to EBITDA growth will be equal to €1.4 billion over the plan period. Renewable capacity is expected to reach 60% of total capacity in three years, driving the increase in the profitability of plant assets and increasing output with zero CO2 emissions to 68% of the total in 2022. The sharp acceleration in the growth of renewables will support the Group’s pursuit of the goal of achieving total decarbonization of the generation mix by 2050;
  • about €1.2 billion of investment will be dedicated to the electrification of energy consumption, leveraging the growth and diversification of the retail customer base and the efficiencies associated with the transfer of activities to platforms. The expected contribution of these investments to the Group’s EBITDA growth amounts to €0.4 billion;
  • some €13 billion will be invested in the factors enabling the energy transition, infrastructure and ecosystems and platforms, to improve the quality and resilience of grids through digitalization and creating services and infrastructure in support of decarbonization and electrification. The expected contribution to EBITDA growth is about €1.1 billion.

Overall, the Group expects to invest €28.7 billion over the course of the plan, producing forecast EBITDA of €20.1 billion in 2022. More than 90% of investments will directly impact three main SDGs: SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), thus contributing to SDG 13 for climate action.
Under our dividend policy, over the plan period Enel will continue to pay out a dividend equal to the greater of 70% of consolidated ordinary net income and a guaranteed minimum dividend per share, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.6% for the implicit DPS and 7.7% for the minimum DPS. Expectations for 2020 envisage:

  • an acceleration of investment in support of industrial growth to drive decarbonization, in renewable energy, especially in Latin America and North America;
  • further progress in the digitalization of distribution grids, mainly in Italy and Latin America, with the aim of improving the service quality and increasing grid flexibility and resilience;
  • an increase in investment devoted to the electrification of energy consumption, with the aim of leveraging the expansion of the customer base, and to continuous efficiency enhancement, supported by the creation of global business platforms.

The progress achieved for each of the enabling factors and the fundamental principles of the Strategic Plan enable us to confirm our financial targets for 2020. Furthermore, based on the key elements set out above, the financial targets underpinning the Group’s 2020-2022 Strategic Plan are outlined below.

   

Financial targets

     

2019

2020

2021

2022

CAGR (%) 2019-2022

Ordinary EBITDA (€bn)

17.9

18.6

19.4

20.1

+3.9%

Net ordinary income (€bn)

4.8

5.4

5.8

6.1

+8.3%

Pay-out ratio

70%

70%

70%

70%

-

Implicit DPS (€/share)

0.328

0.37

0.40

0.42

+8.6%

Minimum dividend per share (€)

0.32

0.35

0.37

0.40

+7.7%